JohnnyAdam – Barat
dilaporkan menghantar “Isyarat yang jelas” kepada pembangkang Syria bahawa
Presiden Assad perlu kekal di tempatnya untuk mengelakkan radikal Islam Al-Qaeda
dari mendapat kelebihan dalam konflik dan menjadikan Syria sebagai pusat global
bagi jihad.
Dengan
peringkat baru rundingan damai ditetapkan untuk memulakan Januari 22 di Geneva,
pentadbiran Amerika Syarikat membuat perubahan penting dalam sikap mereka
terhadap Bashar Assad dan pentadbiran Alawi beliau.
Dalam
eksklusif, agensi berita Reuters melaporkan bahawa pemberontak Syria, yang
sebelum ini mendakwa mereka hanya akan menghadiri rundingan damai jika Presiden
Assad segera meletak jawatan, dipaksa untuk bersetuju dengan beliau yang
tinggal di pejabat dan juga mungkin mengambil bahagian dalam pilihan raya presiden akan
datang.
Washington
yang diterajui pakatan anti-Assad telah dengan berat hati membuat kesim-pulan
bahawa tanpa Assad Syria tidak lama lagi akan bertukar menjadi tumpuan utama
bagi radikal Islam yang akan menggunakan negara itu, yang bersempadan dengan
Israel, untuk menyebarkan pengaruh Al-Qaeda di seluruh seluruh Tengah Timur.
Pada
sesuatu mesyuarat kumpulan teras ‘Friends Of Syria’ dan kepimpinan kanan di
sempadan Syria Gabungan Kebangsaan yang berlaku 13 Disember di UK, pembangkang
Syria berhadapan dengan keadaan yg dihadapi bahawa Barat memerlukan Assad.
“Rakan-rakan
Barat kami menjelaskan di London yang Assad tidak boleh dibenarkan untuk pergi
sekarang, kerana mereka fikir huru-hara dan pengambilalihan pengganas akan
terjadi,” kata seorang anggota kanan yang tidak dinamakan Gabungan Kebangsaan
Syria, berhampiran dengan pegawai-pegawai dari Arab Saudi, memberitahu Reuters.
Sumber
yang sama juga mengesahkan bahawa penaja Barat pemberontak Syria tidak akan
tidak keberatan jika Assad mengambil bahagian dalam pilihan raya akan datang
presiden apabila jangka semasa tamat pada 2014.
‘US doesn’t mind if Assad stays’ - report
The West
is reportedly sending “clear signals” to the Syrian opposition that President
Assad should stay in place to prevent Al Qaeda-linked radical Islamists from
gaining upper hand in the conflict and turning Syria into a global center for
jihad.
With new
stage of peace negotiations set to begin Jan. 22 in Geneva, the US
administration is making a pivotal change in their attitude toward Bashar Assad
and his Alawite administration.
In an
exclusive, the Reuters news agency reports that Syrian rebels, who previously
claimed they would only attend peace talks if President Assad immediately
resigned, are being forced to agree on him remaining in office and even
probably taking part in the next presidential elections.
The
Washington-led anti-Assad coalition has reluctantly come to the conclusion that
without Assad Syria would very soon turn into a focal point for Islamist
radicals who would use the country, bordering Israel, to spread Al-Qaeda’s
influence across the whole of the Middle East.
At a
meeting of the core group of the Friends of Syria and the senior leadership of
the Syrian National Coalition that took place December 13 in the UK, the Syrian
opposition was confronted with a fait accompli that the West needs Assad.
“Our
Western friends made it clear in London that Assad cannot be allowed to go now,
because they think chaos and an Islamist militant takeover would ensue,” an
unnamed senior member of the Syrian National Coalition, close to officials from
Saudi Arabia, told Reuters.
The same
source also confirmed that Western sponsors of the Syrian rebels would not even
mind if Assad takes part in the next presidential elections when his current
term expires in 2014.
Ahli-ahli kumpulan jihad Barisan Al-Nusra (Members
of jihadist group Al-Nusra Front (AFP Photo – think IN pictures
@1WORLDCommunity)
“Ada yang tidak kelihatan di fikiran jika dia berjalan lagi tahun depan,” kata sumber
kepada Reuters, tertanya-tanya sama ada Barat telah lupa bahawa Assad “menyerang
dgn gas beracun kaumnya sendiri.”
Negara-negara
anggota 11 kawan2 pada kumpulan Syria dikeluarkan perisytiharan, sebagaimana
sebelum menuduh Presiden Bashar Assad menjadi bertanggungjawab bagi keadaan
semasa dengan jihad yang mengalir ke Syria. Walau bagaimanapun, dokumen itu
juga perubahan retorik ke arah radikal Islam, dengan mendakwa bahawa mereka “melemahkan
Geneva . . . memproses dan mengancam keutuhan wilayah Syria dan juga
keselamatan antarabangsa dan serantau.”
Pusingan
rundingan untuk menyelesaikan krisis Syria aman akan diadakan di Geneva pada 22
Januari, dan ternyata bahawa Washington menggesa pemberontak Syria untuk membuat
konsesi yang amat menyakitkan.
Ketua
pihak pembangkang harus “lebih kreatif” di Geneva dan menerima keperluan
meninggalkan pegawai Alawi dalam rejim Assad dalam jawatan penting sebuah
kerajaan peralihan masa depan, seorang diplomat Timur Tengah kepada Reuters.
“Bagi
Geneva untuk menghasilkan perkiraan yang boleh diterima ke Amerika Syarikat dan
Russia, pembangkang perlu menerima mengambil bahagian dalam pentadbiran
peralihan dengan kehadiran Alawi yang kuat,” kata diplomat itu, melahirkan
harapan bahawa sekurang-kurangnya Assad akan berkurangan kuasa, sama ada
sebagai presiden atau tidak.
Diplomat
itu juga memberi amaran kepada pemberontak bahawa “Jika pembangkang menolak
apa-apa perjanjian, mereka akan kehilangan kebanyakan Barat dan hanya mempunyai
Arab Saudi, Libya dan Turki ditinggalkan di pihak mereka.”
Seorang
lagi anggota pembangkang Syria berkata bahawa Moscow dan Washington sebenarnya
bekerja “seiring” sekarang, cuba untuk memastikan pihak berkuasa Syria semasa
bertanggungjawab bagi tentera dan keselamatan perkhidmatan supaya mereka
kemudian boleh menyatukan kuasa-kuasa dengan pembangkang sederhana untuk
menangani kumpulan Al-Qaeda yang telah membanjiri Syria.
“Some do
not even seem to mind if he runs again next year,” the source told Reuters,
wondering whether the West has forgotten that Assad “gassed his own people.”
The 11
member countries in the Friends of Syria group issued a declaration, as before
accusing President Bashar Assad of being responsible for the current situation
with jihadists flowing into Syria. However, the document also changes its
rhetoric towards radical Islamists, claiming that they “undermine the Geneva
... process and threaten Syria's territorial integrity as well as international
and regional security.”
The next
round of negotiations to solve the Syrian crisis peacefully will take place in
Geneva on January 22, and it appears that Washington is urging the Syrian
rebels to make extremely painful concessions.
The
opposition leaders should be “more creative” in Geneva and accept the necessity
of leaving Alawite officials in the Assad regime in key positions of a future
transition government, a Middle East diplomat told Reuters.
“For
Geneva to produce an arrangement acceptable to the United States and Russia,
the opposition would have to accept taking part in a transitional
administration with a strong Alawite presence,” the diplomat said, expressing
the hope that at least Assad would have diminished powers, either as president
or not.
The
diplomat also warned the rebels that “If the opposition rejects such a deal,
they will lose most of the West and only have Saudi Arabia, Libya and Turkey
left on their side.”
Another
member of the Syrian opposition said that Moscow and Washington are actually
working “in tandem” now, trying to keep the current Syrian authorities in
charge of the army and security services so that they could later unite forces
with the moderate opposition to deal with the Al-Qaeda-linked groups that have
flooded Syria.
Gambar
edaran yang dikeluarkan oleh Arab Syria News Agency (SANA) mendakwa menunjukkan
mayat pejuang pemberontak selepas diserang hendap oleh tentera kerajaan di
bandar perindustrian Adra luar Damsyik, pada 21 Julai, 2013 (AFP Photo/SANA – think IN pictures
@1WORLDCommunity)
Wakil
pembangkang bercakap menentang anti-Assad Sunni menuju pihak berkuasa peralihan
di Syria, kerana orang itu tidak akan mampu untuk mengetuai perjuangan
menentang Al-Qaeda di Syria, sesuatu yang kedua-dua Rusia dan Amerika Syarikat yang tertarik.
"Walaupun
Assad diketepikan dan ketua Sunni pihak berkuasa peralihan beliau akan
mempunyai kuasa kerana bukan Washington ataupun Moscow kelihatan mahu
menamat-kan kawalan Alawi lalui tentera dan peralatan keselamatan,” katanya.
Seorang
pegawai kanan Barat kepada Reuters bahawa Rusia dan Amerika Syarikat telah
membincangkan calon-calon untuk kerajaan peralihan Syria masa depan tetapi
apa-apa yang konkrit telah dipersetujui setakat ini.
U-turn
dalam persepsi Barat Assad telah didahului oleh Golongan ini Barisan Islam di
Syria membuat percubaan yang tidak berjaya untuk mengambil di bawah kawalan
saluran bantuan tidak membawa maut Amerika dan British diberikan kepada
pemberontak Syria melalui Turki dikawal oleh pemberontak yang sederhana (moderate
rebels).
Kurang
dari seminggu yang lalu, Golongan ini dari Al-Nusra Front menawan bandar Adra
kira 20 kilometer ke utara Damsyik dan menjalankan pembunuhan beramai-ramai
kejam pada (brutal massacre) orang2 awam.
Lebih 80
orang di Adra, ada kalanya keluarga-keluarga, telah disembelih dengan kejam (brutally
slaughtered).
Rusia-Amerika Syarikat dekat-mendekati mengenai isu Syria
Pada
bulan Ogos, berikutan beberapa siri serangan kimia di Syria, Presiden Amerika
Syarikat, Barack Obama Washington mendapati dirinya dalam kedudukan yang
janggal, kerana dia telah berjanji campur tangan ketenteraan terhadap rejim
Syria jika kerajaan Assad telah terbukti telah menggunakan senjata itu.
Tetapi
selepas pendirian yang kuat oleh Rusia pada sidang kemuncak G20 di St
Petersburg, memenangi sokongan meluas di kalangan negara-negara lain untuk
penyelesaian secara aman krisis Syria, pentadbiran Obama terpaksa memikirkan
semula strateginya dalam konflik Syria.
Selepas
Presiden Rusia Vladimir Putin dilabel serangan kimia sebagai “diadakan” oleh
pembangkang Syria (Syrian opposition), pentadbiran Obama yang diterima banyak
daripada pelucutan simpanan stok Syria (weapons
stockpiles) senjata kimia yang dicadangkan oleh Moscow.
Selepas
pentadbiran Obama ditarik balik (pulled
back) daripada ancaman untuk mengebom rejim Assad untuk “pembunuhan rakyat
sendiri,” perselisihan di antara Washington dan paling dekat Timur Tengah
sekutunya, Arab Saudi dan Turki yang menyo-kong Sunni pemberontak anti-Assad,
mula berkembang.
Pada
bulan Oktober, ahli-ahli keluarga diraja Arab Saudi mengugut (threatened
to rethink) untuk memikirkan semula perkongsian strategik mereka dengan
Amerika Syarikat berikut keengganan Amerika untuk menyokong rancangan Riyadh
kepada Syria dan Iran.
Kemudian
ada laporan bahawa Arab Saudi dan Israel (cooperated)
memberi kerjasama dalam persekutuan kemudahan terhadap Iran.
Menurut
Reuters, Turki memutuskan untuk membekalkan militan depan Islam dengan senjata
langsung.
Di
tengah-tengah perselisihan semakin meningkat di antara Washington dan sekutu
tradisional Timur Tengah, pembangkang Syria, yang disokong oleh Arab Saudi,
Libya dan Turki, adalah tidak mungkin untuk melancarkan cabaran yang berjaya
untuk rejim Syria yang disokong oleh Iran, Rusia dan China, pakar percaya.
The
opposition representative spoke against an anti-Assad Sunni heading the
transitional authorities in Syria, because such a person would be unable to
head a battle against Al-Qaeda in Syria, something that both Russia and the US
are interested in.
“Even if
Assad is sidelined and a Sunni heads a transitional authority, he would have no
power because neither Washington nor Moscow appears to want to end the Alawite
control over the military and security apparatus,” he said.
A senior
Western official told Reuters that Russia and the US are already discussing
candidates for a future transitional Syrian government, but that nothing
concrete has been agreed so far.
The
U-turn in Western perception of Assad was preceded by jihadists of the Islamic
Front in Syria making an unsuccessful attempt to take under control the
channels of American and British non-lethal aid provided to the Syrian rebels
via Turkey controlled by moderate rebels.
Less
than a week ago, jihadists from the Al-Nusra Front captured the town of Adra
some 20 kilometers north of Damascus and carried out a brutal
massacre of civilians.
Over 80
people in Adra, sometimes whole families, were brutally
slaughtered.
Russia-US
rapprochement on Syria issue
In
August, following a series of chemical attacks in Syria, US President Barack
Obama Washington found himself in an awkward position, because he had promised
a military intervention against the Syrian regime if Assad’s government was
proved to have used such weapons.
But after
a strong stand by Russia at the G20 summit in St. Petersburg, winning
widespread support among other nations for a peaceful solution for the Syrian
crisis, the Obama administration was forced to rethink its strategy in the
Syrian conflict.
After
Russia’s President Vladimir Putin labeled chemical attacks as “staged” by the Syrian
opposition, the Obama administration accepted a deal of stripping Syria of
its chemical weapons stockpiles proposed by Moscow.
After
the Obama administration pulled
back from its threat to bomb the Assad regime for “gassing his own people,”
the rift between Washington and its closest Middle East allies, Saudi Arabia
and Turkey supporting the Sunni anti-Assad rebels, began to grow.
In
October, members of the Saudi Arabian royal family threatened
to rethink their strategic partnership with the US following America’s
reluctance to back up Riyadh’s plans for Syria and Iran.
Then
there were reports that Saudi Arabia and Israel cooperated
in an alliance of convenience against Iran.
According
to Reuters, Turkey decided to supply the Islamic front militants with weapons
directly.
Amid a
growing rift between Washington and its traditional Middle East allies, the
Syrian opposition, backed by Saudi Arabia, Libya and Turkey, is unlikely to
mount a successful challenge to the Syrian regime backed by Iran, Russia and
China, experts believe.
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