MADAyuMadyan - Menghadapi
silang kata yang paling penting ekonomi sejak kejatuhan Kesatuan Soviet, Kiev
telah diselaraskan sendiri lebih dekat dengan Rusia, dan telah digan-tung
persiapan untuk menandatangani perjanjian perdagangan EU.
Rusia
telah memberi amaran kepada satu langkah ke arah barat Ukraine akan “perdagan-gan
membunuh diri” (trade suicide) dan menyebabkan berbilion-bilion dalam
pendapa-tan perdagangan hilang (lost)
dan yang menyertai Rusia yang dipimpin Kesatuan Kastam adalah lebih bermanfaat.
Ukraine
akan “memulihkan dialog aktif” dengan Kesatuan Kastam dan CIS, sebagai menteri
ekonomi dan asing yang dicadangkan Ukraine, Rusia, dan Kesatuan Eropah
mewu-judkan sebuah suruhanjaya 3 pihak untuk memperbaiki dan memperkukuhkan
hubungan perdagangan.
Presiden
Dmitry Peskov jurucakap berkata Rusia mengalu-alukan keputusan Ukraine secara
aktif membangunkan hubungan dengan Moscow, dan Putin berkata beliau tidak
sepenuhnya terhadap persatuan Ukraine dengan EU.
Putin
berkata beliau menyokong idea rundingan perdagangan 3 hala, tetapi hanya
sehingga Ukraine menandatangani perjanjian persatuan dengan EU.
“Kami
menyokong ini, tetapi hanya sebelum keputusan dibuat. Bagaimana kita boleh
mengadakan rundingan mengenai isu-isu yang telah dipersetujui dan disahkan ?
Apakah peranan kita dalam apa-apa rundingan ? Ia adalah sama dengan sifar,
tetapi kita pasti bersedia untuk apa-apa perbincangan jika ia adalah besar,”
kata Putin Rabu di Moscow.
Putin victorious as
Ukraine postponed ‘trade suicide’,
halts talks with EU . . .
Facing
its most important economic crosswords since the collapse of the Soviet Union,
Kiev has aligned itself closer to Russia, and has suspended preparations to
sign an EU trade deal.
Russia
has warned a step west towards Ukraine would be "trade
suicide" and result in billions in lost trade revenue and that joining
the Russia-led Customs Union is more beneficial.
Ukraine
will “restore an active dialogue” with the Customs Union and the CIS, as
economic and foreign ministers proposed Ukraine, Russia, and the EU create a
tri-party commission to improve and strengthen trade relations.
President's
spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russia welcomed Ukraine's decision to actively
develop ties with Moscow, and Putin added he wasn't completely against
Ukraine's association with EU.
Putin
said he supports the idea of trilateral trade talks, but only up until Ukraine
signs an association agreement with the EU.
"We
favor this, but only before decisions are made. How can we hold negotiations on
issues that have already been agreed upon and endorsed? What is our role in
such negotiations? It's equal to zero, but we are surely prepared for such a
discussion if it is substantial," Putin said Wednesday in Moscow.
Gambar
ini # # Presiden Ukraine Yanukovych di tebing beredar di media sosial hari ini
(This photo of #Ukraine
President #Yanukovych
on a ledge circulating on social media today (Christopher
Miller) – think IN pictures @1WORLDCommunity)
Pada
mulanya, menandatangani Perjanjian Persatuan antara Ukraine dan EU jadual
berlaku pada sidang kemuncak Vilnius itu pada 28 November, tetapi pada 21
November parlimen menolak rang undang-undang yang akan membolehkan Tymoshenko
untuk melancong ke luar negara untuk rawatan.
Pada
hari Khamis Ukraine gagal untuk meluluskan undang-undang yang akan membe-baskan
bekas Perdana Menteri Geografi Tymoshenko - blok utama penghalang dalam
rundingan pada Kiev itu menandatangani perjanjian persatuan perdagangan dengan
EU.
Walau
bagaimanapun, Presiden Yanukovych berkata beliau masih mempunyai mata beliau
pada integrasi dengan EU.
“Kami
masih mempunyai sedikit untuk pergi ke atas. Kami tidak takut kesukaran dan
yakin bahawa kami akan terus ke arah integrasi Eropah,” kata Yanukovych pada
Rabu.
“Jika
tidak ada perjanjian pada bulan November, Putin akan telah memenangi keme-nangan
psikologi membanggakan - semua orang yang dalam EU akan mahu mengelakkan itu,
dan Yanukovych tuduhan itu,” Dimitry Trenin memberitahu RT menjelang keputusan.
Initially,
the signing of the Association Agreement between Ukraine and EU was schedule to
take place at the Vilnius summit on November 28, but on November 21 the
parliament rejected a bill that would allow Tymoshenko to travel abroad for
treatment.
On
Thursday Ukraine failed to pass a law that would free former Prime Minister
Yulia Tymoshenko - the key stumbling block in the negotiations on Kiev’s
signing the association trade agreement with the EU.
However,
President Yanukovych said he still had his eye on integration with the EU.
“We
still have a bit to go to the top. We do not fear difficulties and are
confident that we will continue towards European integration,” Yanukovych said
on Wednesday.
“If
there is no deal in November, Putin will have won a resounding psychological
victory – most everyone in the EU would want to prevent that, and Yanukovych
counts on it,” Dimitry Trenin told RT ahead of the decision.
Yulia
Tymoshenko (Reuters/Gleb Garanich – think IN pictures @1WORLDCommunity)
Tarikh akhir cuti
penjara
Tarikh
akhir untuk Ukraine untuk memenuhi semua kriteria yang diperlukan untuk
menyertai persatuan perdagangan EU pada mulanya ditetapkan untuk 18 November,
dan kemudian kemudiannya berpindah ke 21 November.
Ukraine
berharap untuk bertindak sebagai “Jambatan (bridge)”
antara Rusia dan EU, Presiden Viktor Yanukovych berkata awam banyak kali.
Rusia
menyatakan dengan jelas tidak akan ada “Jambatan” jika Ukraine melangkah barat,
mereka akan terpaksa melepaskan “hubungan eksklusif” mereka dengan Rusia.
Satu
duta EU telah ke Kiev semua November keadaan bersedia untuk Ukraine untuk
memasuki persatuan perdagangan EU di Sidang Kemuncak Perkongsian Timur dalam
Vilnius, tetapi perjanjian itu seolah-olah kurang dan kurang kemungkinan
sebagai bekas Perdana Menteri kekal di dalam penjara.
Kegagalan
untuk melepaskan Tymoshenko akan menghalang Ukraine dari menyertai dalam
Vilnius, kerana ia adalah satu isyarat negara ini tidak bersedia untuk
memperbaiki amalan keadilan mereka kepada standard Eropah.
Tymoshenko
telah dipenjara pada tahun 2011 untuk menangani gas dia ditaja dengan Rusia
pada tahun 2009 dan dilihat sebagai bermotifkan politik.
Kesatuan Kastam Putin
Ekonomi
yang besar Ukraine ($156 billion) dan kaya dengan sumber tanah telah kedua-dua
Moscow dan Brussels memikat untuk tawaran perdagangan eksklusif.
Jika
Kiev memilih untuk meneruskan keahlian EU, ia akan menggagalkan rancangan besar
Presiden Rusia Vladimir Putin untuk mewujudkan satu blok perdagangan untuk menyaingi
Kesatuan Eropah, yang setakat ini termasuk Belarus dan Kazakhstan. Armenia juga
telah menyatakan hasratnya untuk menyertai orbit perdagangan Rusia itu.
Kedua-dua
tawaran yang menarik. Dengan menyebelahi dengan Rusia, Ukraine terus memupuk
hubungan baik dengan jiran yang mengimport hampir 25% peratus daripada eksport
Ukraine.
Bergerak
ke barat ke Eropah akan menjimatkan pengeksport Ukraine hampir $490 million
lebih 10 tahun, 95% peratus daripada barang-barang yang akan mempunyai duti
kastam sifar, menurut Suruhanjaya Eropah.
Eropah
telah memikat Ukraine ke keahlian bersekutu perdagangan bagi 4 tahun yang lalu,
dan telah mencipta pertempuran geopolitik dengan Rusia, yang telah menghukum
Ukraine barat langkahnya .
Menteri-menteri
EU sepatutnya membuat keputusan pada hari Selasa jika mereka akan menaja keahlian
EU persatuan perdagangan Ukraine, dan duta EU khas telah ke Kiev bulan ini.
Nekat
bahaya banyak politik yang telah dilaksanakan yang membawa kepada perjanjian
perdagangan. Ukraine mengancam untuk berhenti membeli gas Rusia dan Moscow
mencetuskan spekulasi akan ada lagi perang gas antara kedua-dua negara-negara
jiran, yang akan meninggalkan Ukraine tanpa gas asli yang cukup untuk bertahan
musim sejuk.
Prison break deadline
The
deadline for Ukraine to meet all criteria necessary to join the EU trade
association was initially set for November 18, and then was later moved to
November 21.
Ukraine
had hoped to act as a "bridge"
between Russia and the EU, President Viktor Yanukovych said many times
publicly.
Russia
made it clear there will be no "bridge" if Ukraine stepped west; they
would have to give up their "exclusive relationship" with Russia.
An
EU envoy has been in Kiev all of November preparing conditions for Ukraine to
enter the EU trade association at the Eastern Partnership Summit in Vilnius,
but the deal seemed less and less likely as the former Prime Minister remained
in prison.
The
failure to release Tymoshenko would block Ukraine from joining in Vilnius, as
it’s a signal the country isn’t ready to improve their justice practices to a
European standard.
Tymoshenko
was jailed in 2011 for a gas deal she brokered with Russia in 2009 and is seen
as politically motivated.
Putin’s Customs Union
Ukraine’s
sizable economy ($156 billion) and resource-rich land had both Moscow and
Brussels courting for exclusive trade deals.
If
Kiev chooses to pursue EU membership, it will foil Russian President Vladimir
Putin’s great plan to create a trade block to rival the EU, which so far
includes Belarus and Kazakhstan. Armenia has also expressed its intentions to
join Russia’s trade orbit.
Both
deals are appealing. By siding with Russia, Ukraine continues to foster good
relations with its neighbor that imports nearly 25 percent of Ukraine’s
exports.
Moving
west to Europe would save Ukrainian exporters nearly $490 million over 10
years, as 95 percent of goods would have zero customs duties, according to the
European Commission.
Europe
has been courting Ukraine into an associate trade membership for the past four
years, and has created a geopolitical battle with Russia, who has punished
Ukraine for its move west.
EU
ministers were supposed to decide on Tuesday if they will sponsor Ukraine’s EU
trade association membership, and a special EU envoy has been in Kiev this last
month
Much
political brinkmanship has been executed leading up to the trade deal. Ukraine
threatened to stop buying Russian gas, and Moscow stoked speculation there
would be another gas war between the two neighbors, which would leave Ukraine
without enough natural gas to last the winter.
Reuters/Yuri
Maltsev (think IN pictures @1WORLDCommunity)
Gas
Ukraine
mengadu tentang harga yang tinggi bagi gas Rusia, yang rata-rata sekitar $ 400
bagi setiap 1,000 meter padu, salah satu harga tertinggi di Eropah. Ukraine
kini mengimport lebih separuh daripada gas dari Rusia, tetapi kedua-dua negara
sedang ber-usaha untuk mengurangkan perniagaan.
Lebih
sedekad yang lalu Ukraine dan Rusia telah cuba untuk memutuskan hubungan gas
rumit mereka. Gazprom telah membina maze saluran paip memintas Ukraine gas
penghantaran ke Eropah, dan Ukraine telah menarik (wooing)
syarikat-syarikat asing dalam usaha sama di syal dan rizab luar pesisir.
Selepas
Naftogas , syarikat minyak dan gas milik kerajaan Ukraine dan berkata, ia telah
memotong hubungan dengan Gazprom, Yanukovich bercanggah dengan kenyataan yang
mengatakan beliau “hoped for a comprise” dengan Rusia.
Bekas
Perdana Menteri Ukraine Yulia Tymoshenko menandatangani kontrak ‘pra-bayar’ dengan
Gazprom pada tahun 2009 dan kemudiannya dipenjarakan atas tuduhan
penya-lahgunaan kuasa.
Sejak
kontrak pra-bayar telah ditubuhkan, Ukraine telah mengadu bagi harga gas mahal.
Di
Ukraine adalah hampir untuk menandatangani perjanjian perdagangan persatuan EU di
Vilnius pada akhir November, satu langkah yang boleh mencetuskan satu siri baru
peperangan perdagangan dan gas dengan Rusia.
Rusia
dan Ukraine melancarkan 2 peperangan ke atas harga gas di musim sejuk tahun
2006 dan 2009 (yang berlangsung 3 minggu) dalam tuntutan Ukraine adalah lewat
mem-bayar.
Hutang dan yang Turunkan
Rizab
mata wang Ukraine susut nilai dan defisit besar-besaran telah meletakkan ia
berhampiran dengan kejatuhan ekonomi, dan bailout IMF antara $10-15 billion
nam-paknya banyak dan banyak mungkin.
Rizab
kerajaan Ukraine begitu habis mereka mungkin tidak lagi dapat menyimpan
Naftogaz bertahan, dan mungkin terpaksa mencari pembeli asing.
Tinjauan
semakin teruk telah mendorong 3 agensi besar penarafan untuk menurunkan
pandangan mereka pada Ukraine.Fitch diturunkan Ukraine jangka panjang asing
mata wang tempatan penerbit lalai penarafan 'B -' daripada penurunan 'B'
berikut S & P penarafan hutang kepada 'B -' ke tahap sampah yang sama
seperti Greece dan Cyprus. Moody menurunkan penarafan kepada Caa1 dari B3 pada
September meletakkan mereka di “risiko mungkir yang sangat tinggi”.
Pengurus
wang Amerika Syarikat Franklin Templeton telah meningkat $ 5 bilion hutang
antarabangsa Ukraine, hampir ke-5, Financial Times melaporkan.
Rusia
memegang sebahagian besar daripada hutang negara Ukraine.
Gas
Ukraine
complains about high prices for Russian gas, that average around $400 per 1,000
cubic meters, one of the highest prices in Europe. Ukraine currently imports
more than half of its gas from Russia, but both countries are making efforts to
cut down on business.
Over
the last decade Ukraine and Russia have been trying to sever their complicated
gas relationship. Gazprom has been building a maze of pipelines to circumvent
Ukraine to delivery gas to Europe, and Ukraine has been wooing
foreign companies in joint ventures in shale and offshore reserves.
After
Naftogas, Ukraine’s state-owned oil and gas company, said it was cutting ties
with Gazprom, Yanukovich contradicted the statement saying he “hoped for a
comprise” with Russia.
Former
Ukraine Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko signed a ‘pre-pay’ contract with
Gazprom in 2009 and was later jailed on charges of abuse of power.
Since
the pre-pay contract was established, Ukraine has complained for expensive gas
prices.
Ukraine’s
was close to signing a EU trade association agreement in Vilnius in late
November, a move which could have triggered a new series of trade and gas wars
with Russia.
Russia
and Ukraine waged two gas wars over prices in the winters of 2006 and 2009
(which lasted 3 weeks) over a claim Ukraine was late in paying.
Debt and Downgrades
Ukraine’s
depreciating currency reserves and massive deficit have put it close to
economic collapse, and an IMF bailout of between $10-15 billion seems more and
more likely.
Ukraine’s
government reserves are so depleted they may no longer be able to keep Naftogaz
afloat, and may be forced to find a foreign buyer.
The
worsening outlook has prompted the big three rating agencies to downgrade their
outlook on Ukraine.Fitch downgraded Ukraine’s long-term foreign local currency
issuer default rating to ‘B-‘ from ‘B’ following S&P’s downgrade of its
debt rating to ‘B-‘ to the same junk
level as Greece and Cyprus. Moody’s cut its rating to Caa1 from B3 in September
putting them at “very high default risk”.
US
money manager Franklin Templeton has picked up $5 billion of Ukraine’s
international debt, nearly a fifth, the Financial Times reported.
Russia
holds a significant portion of Ukraine’s sovereign national debt.
READ MORE: http://on.rt.com/bsuffs